Here’s a situation in no limit holdem that comes up a lot. You’re in mid or late position with a pair or a couple of high cards or some other hand that you think warrants a bet, but isn’t one of the strongest hands like Aces or Kings. You raise a significant amount. You get one, two, or three callers. The flop doesn’t hit you; you are the first to act. What do you do?
Too general for you? OK. Here’s a specific example.
You’re in the five seat, three after the Big Blind. There is a $2 and a $5 blind. You have $300. You’re dealt a pair of 9s. The 3 and 4 seats fold. You decide to raise by three times the Big Blind, making it $20 to go. You get two callers: the 7 seat and the button.
The flop is Ah 7h 3s. The 7 seat has $250. The button has $100 left. Neither are especially strong players, but they’re not idiots or newbies. They’re moderately tight, occasionally aggressive with very strong hands, but not very tricky or creative. We used to call them "ABC players." They play pretty much by the book.
Do you bet? If so, how much?
Here are some thoughts for you to consider before you answer. You may well have the best hand with your pair of 9s. Practically speaking, if anyone had Aces, Kings, Queens or Jacks, he probably would have raised you -- not definitely, of course. One of these players, conventional though you might have pegged him, may have slowplayed Aces or Kings pre-flop and may now be very far ahead of you or even sitting on a monster hand. They may have started with an Ace-suited or just an Ace-x -- with an Ace-King, Ace-Queen, or Ace-Jack. A lot of players call a significant raise with hands like that. But it’s far more likely that they don’t have one of these hands. You probably have the best hand. You don’t want anyone to catch up and surpass you for free. You’d like to win the hand right there by betting and having the other two players fold. But you don’t want to lose a lot of money if one of your opponents has a higher pair or an Ace.
Have you figured out what you want to do yet? Let me tell you what I do. I usually make a continuation bet.
A continuation bet is a bet that continues your pre-flop aggression with a bet that is about half the size of the pot. It is designed to knock people out who would otherwise check and see the Turn, but it costs you little enough so that you can get away from it if someone raises you and you estimate that they’re ahead of you.
The idea is to give yourself good pot odds by making the bet small and the potential winnings large as a percentage of your bet. In this example, the pot is $52. If you bet $25 then you only have to win a little less than one in three times to make a profit on it.
You make this bet when you aren’t too sure you are in the lead and when you also know that checking is the wrong choice, since your draws are thin and you have a good chance of getting surpassed with the Turn. If someone raises you then you toss your hand, giving up on the bet. Compare this to a standard pot-sized bet on the Turn. With that type of bet you need to succeed 50% of the time, either by getting your opponent to fold or by going forward and winning the hand.
Sometimes you can make a continuation bet from early position with a drawing hand -- as a semi-bluff. You bet half the pot with some expectation that your opponents will fold, but with the added possibility of winning the hand if you hit your draw. If, for example, you raised with Ah, Jh in late position, and the button called you, and then the flop was Qh 7s 2h, you might make a stab at the pot with a $25 bet hoping your opponent would fold, but knowing that you would likely be far ahead if he called and the Turn was a heart or an Ace. On the other hand, if he raised you then you’d have to suspect he had at least a strong pair of Queens and maybe a set, tossing your hand.
There are risks with a continuation bet, reasons you might consider checking instead. Your more observant opponents might notice that you do make this bet after the flop routinely after you bet pre-flop, when you have a middling sort of hand or a draw. If they do notice this then they will start re-raising you and getting you to throw away your hand even when they have nothing. They’ll correctly interpret your small bet as a sign of weakness and steal your small bet. You may also inadvertently get weak players to call when they would otherwise have folded for a larger bet.
There are clearly times when, after the flop, instead of making a continuation bet you should make a pot-sized bet. Other times, instead of making a continuation bet you will want to check. If the flop is very likely to have helped your opponents, don’t make any bet. Here’s a specific example of that. If you started with JJ and the flop is AKQ or even AQ2, don’t make that bet. Just check and hope no one bets. If they bet you’ll have to fold. Similarly, if you really hit the flop or still have no reason to think that anyone was especially helped by the flop, go ahead and make your pot-sized bet. If the flop, when you initially bet your Jacks, were T-6-3 for example, you should make a large bet -- being very confidant that no one has moved ahead of you.
A continuation bet has many uses. But you need to make sure that you don’t make this move just because you can. Pick your spots with the continuation bet and it will help your game.
